Time for a StatZone folks! Can we really, feasibly hope to grab 6th place & the final play-off spot? Here’s some statistical analysis that says it is doable. It’s still one hell of an ask, but nonetheless it’s doable.
A figure of 75 points to grab that 6th spot has been bandied around a fair bit amongst our support. There’s good reason for that, 4 of the last 8 seasons have needed 75 points to secure 6th (11/12, 10/11, 06/07 & 05/06). The average over those last 8 is 73.375 points for 6th spot.
However, this season has been pretty close to 09/10 though, mimicking its 6th spot having 52 points after 34 matches. In 09/10 only 70 points were needed to secure 6th spot. Every season is unique of course, we all know that, but based on that it’s fair to say that securing 70 points (& a half decent goal difference) sees us with a decent shout of 6th.
So could we do that? After beating Barnsley at theirs we now have 48 points, so are 22 points short. In the remaining 11 matches that’s the equivalent of 7 wins & a draw (plus 3 losses along the way). 3 losses I’m sure we could achieve, a draw too, it’s a whole 7 more wins that’s the issue.
Are there 7 teams left we can beat? Well, as it happens yes! On the rationale that teams below us are worse (yes yes, we know it’s not that straightforward) we still have the following 7 teams to play who we can beat: Blackburn, Ipswich, Charlton, Wolves, Huddersfield, Bristol & Blackpool.
So it IS doable. Will we? It’ll take one hell of an effort that’s obvious, especially as 5 of the matches remaining are away from home. It CAN be done though & we have to keep on believing & fight to the last. We can lose 3 matches & still have a shot at 6th, so lets get behind the lads & help carry the Wanderers onwards & upwards. WE ARE THE ONE AND ONLY WANDERERS!
[StatZone is a regular feature of The Men In White Podcast. Why not tune in in future to catch more Wanderers statty goodness?]